Michigan Timber Prices Q4 2025

Michigan’s timber market enters the final quarter of 2025 with timber prices stabilizing after years of volatility, showing modest year-over-year gains as housing demand recovers and mill capacity tightens. Benchmark lumber reached $587.64 per thousand board feet by late October—up 10.78% from 2024—while stumpage prices for premium species like black walnut and white oak remain strong. However, the market faces significant headwinds: over 1,100 forestry jobs lost since 2019, unprecedented international tariff barriers, and persistently soft pulpwood demand. For Michigan timber owners, Q4 2025 represents a cautiously optimistic moment, where quality sawlogs command solid prices but broader industry restructuring continues reshaping the market.

This report provides current pricing data for Michigan’s key timber species and products, along with analysis of the economic, environmental, and policy factors driving the state’s timber markets as we close out 2025.

Michigan Timber Prices by Species and Product

The following table reflects current Q4 2025 ranges for Michigan timber prices based on the most recent market data. Prices represent stumpage values (amounts paid to landowners for standing timber) and vary based on tree quality, stand volume, accessibility, distance to mills, and local market conditions.

Species	Sawlogs ($/MBF)	Veneer Logs ($/MBF)	Pulpwood ($/cord)
Hard Maple	$200-$400	$800-$1,500	$25-$50
Red Oak	$250-$350	—	$20-$45
White Oak	$300-$600	$800-$1,500	$25-$40
Black Cherry	$100-$300	$400-$800	—
Black Walnut	$2,500-$3,000	$3,500-$4,000+	—
White Ash	$150-$250	—	$15-$30
Aspen	$50-$150	—	$20-$35
Red Pine	$100-$200	—	$50-$100
White Pine	$80-$150	—	$30-$60
Jack Pine	$75-$125	—	$40-$80

Note: Sawlog prices measured in dollars per thousand board feet (MBF). Pulpwood prices measured in dollars per standard cord (4’x4’x8′). Veneer logs represent premium-grade material meeting strict quality requirements. Actual prices vary significantly based on individual timber characteristics and local market conditions.

Key pricing observations for Q4 2025: Black walnut remains Michigan’s most valuable species, with veneer-quality logs exceeding $4,000 per MBF—more than ten times the value of lower-grade hardwoods. White oak maintains premium pricing at $300-$600 per MBF, driven by strong demand from cooperage markets and furniture manufacturers. Hard maple prices have stabilized at $200-$400 per MBF after significant volatility in recent years, while Michigan pine species remain within normal five-year ranges despite construction market fluctuations.

Market Conditions Shaping Michigan Timber Prices in Q4 2025

Recovering Housing Demand Supports Lumber Prices

The housing market’s tentative recovery provides the most significant positive signal for Michigan timber prices in late 2025. Single-family housing starts reached 1.11 million units in February 2025, representing an 11% monthly increase, while lumber futures climbed steadily through the year. Federal Reserve rate cuts—reducing the policy rate to 4.00-4.25% by September with more cuts anticipated—are gradually improving housing affordability.

Industry forecasts project total U.S. housing starts will increase 4% in 2025 and single-family starts will rise 11%, with further gains expected through 2028. By 2028, analysts predict delivered log prices in the Great Lakes region will reach approximately $975 per MBF, surpassing 2022 peaks. This optimism stems from fundamental housing market strength: millennial homebuyers entering peak purchasing years, historically low existing home inventory, and pent-up demand from years of underbuilding.

However, the housing recovery faces constraints. The “lock-in effect” from ultra-low pandemic-era mortgage rates keeps existing homeowners in place, reducing available inventory and forcing first-time buyers to remain renters. Current 30-year mortgage rates around 6.35% remain substantially above the sub-3% rates of 2020-2021. While Fed rate cuts should gradually reduce mortgage rates toward 5% through 2026, affordability challenges persist.

Mill Closures Create Supply Constraints

Michigan’s forest products sector has endured brutal contraction over the past five years, fundamentally altering market dynamics. A comprehensive Michigan State University study documented devastating impacts between 2019-2023: over 1,100 jobs lost (273 direct sawmill positions plus 820 in related sectors like logging and transportation) and $211 million in economic output eliminated.

The closure wave continued through 2025. Besse Forest Products Group shut down six facilities across Michigan and Wisconsin in September 2025, including two Upper Peninsula mills in Gladstone and Baraga. Earlier closures included Graphic Packaging’s Grand Rapids-area plant (111 workers) and DPI Michigan operations (200 jobs). Michigan’s mill count declined from 257 facilities in 2018 to 237 by 2023, with large operations bearing the brunt—dropping from 48 to 35 mills.

These closures create paradoxical market effects. Reduced capacity should support Michigan timber prices by tightening supply, but fewer operating mills mean less competition for standing timber and more limited outlets for landowners. The MSU researchers emphasized that two-thirds of job losses occurred outside sawmills, demonstrating how mill closures ripple through entire regional economies, hitting labor-intensive logging operations particularly hard.

Offsetting this decline, targeted investments offer glimmers of hope. Precision Hardwoods announced a $12 million modernization project in Onaway in January 2025, quintupling production capacity to 7.5-8 million board feet annually while creating 18 jobs. The 45,000-square-foot facility emphasizes sustainably managed Michigan hardwoods with Forest Stewardship Council certification. Wilson Enterprises expanded its Upper Peninsula sawmilling capacity with advanced Wood-Mizer equipment. Yet these investments cannot offset the scale of recent closures.

Export Market Disruption From Unprecedented Tariffs

International trade barriers reached crisis levels in 2025, fundamentally disrupting U.S. hardwood markets. China imposed 125% tariffs on U.S. hardwood exports—effectively shutting down the largest export market that previously absorbed nearly 35 million board feet of U.S. lumber monthly. The National Hardwood Lumber Association reported bluntly: “At the current tariff level, there is no market acceptance for US goods exported to China.”

Canada retaliated with 25% tariffs on U.S. hardwoods in March 2025, while the European Union implemented 25% tariffs on many species (with exemptions for oak, walnut, hickory, and yellow poplar) effective July 2025. Combined, 54.4% of total U.S. hardwood lumber exports—over $970 million worth—face tariff barriers in 2025. Through May, U.S. hardwood lumber exports dropped 13% by volume compared to 2024.

While Michigan’s timber primarily serves domestic markets, export disruptions create ripple effects. Reduced international demand puts downward pressure on domestic prices as exporters redirect product to U.S. markets. The strong dollar compounds challenges by raising prices for foreign buyers even in non-tariffed markets.

Pulpwood Markets Remain Depressed

Cordwood and pulpwood prices continue suffering across the Lake States, reflecting the paper industry’s structural capacity reductions. Multiple mills have closed to hardwood cordwood purchases entirely, with “no bid” timber auctions reported throughout 2024-2025. Biomass energy facilities in the Upper Great Lakes that once converted wood residuals into revenue have gone offline, transforming residuals from assets into liabilities for loggers and sawmills.

The notable exception: oak cordwood in Michigan commands prices above $40 per cord—double the rates in neighboring states—though this represents a 7.5% decline from prior years. Forest Data Network reported most cordwood species remained “very soft” through 2024, with only occasional inventory rebuilding creating temporary demand spikes. One Michigan region saw hard maple pulpwood prices increase 25% in Q3 2024 as depleted mill inventories required restocking, but these gains proved temporary.

For landowners with mixed timber stands, weak pulpwood markets create challenges. Stands containing significant cordwood volumes become less attractive to buyers when only sawlog material commands reasonable prices. This particularly affects aspen, ash, and lower-grade hardwoods where pulpwood historically provided important revenue.

Emerald Ash Borer Reaches Equilibrium

The emerald ash borer invasion that began in 2002 has fundamentally reshaped Michigan’s forests, killing 80-99% of mature ash trees and eliminating tens of millions of trees statewide. The species has spread across 36+ states, and Michigan no longer requires EAB reporting given its ubiquitous establishment.

However, March 2025 research from Michigan State University offers cautious optimism. Studies in Clinton, Eaton, and Ingham counties found white ash demonstrating unexpected resilience. While mature trees died en masse, forests continue reproducing ash. Current ash populations consist primarily of saplings and small trees—they were too small during peak invasion waves to attract beetle infestation. Michigan DNR has identified resistant genetics and established a 2019 green ash plantation with resistant stock, though trees remain too young for seed production.

Researchers are also releasing biocontrol parasitoid wasps from Asia and Russia, with approximately 8 million released since 2007 showing early signs of beetle population control. As MSU forest entomology professor Deborah McCullough noted: “I think if we have the will and some resources, we can learn to live with the emerald ash borer. It won’t be like it was before, though.”

For the timber market, ash sawlog prices have reached historical highs—$150-$250 per MBF—due to scarcity, but limited supply and predominantly small-diameter trees constrain commercial value. The ash market has essentially transitioned from abundant commodity to scarce specialty product.

Economic Conditions and Interest Rate Relief

Broader economic conditions provide mixed signals for Michigan timber prices. The Federal Reserve resumed rate cuts in September 2025, reducing the policy rate by 0.25% to 4.00-4.25%, with two additional cuts projected before year-end. Interest rate futures markets price in further reductions to approximately 2.9% by end of 2026. These cuts respond to softening labor market data—the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised jobs data downward by 911,000 for the April 2024-March 2025 period, revealing the economy created roughly 75,000 fewer jobs monthly than initially reported.

Lower interest rates should gradually improve housing affordability through 2026, supporting lumber demand recovery if not met with demand destruction from a softening labor market. However, tariff-driven inflation complicates monetary policy. Yale Budget Lab found core goods prices are approximately 1.9% above pre-2025 trends due to tariff impacts. The Fed faces a delicate balance: cut rates too aggressively and tariff-driven price pressures could reignite inflation; move too cautiously and the weakening labor market could tip into recession.

Transportation and logistics costs remain elevated, with multiple timber buyers citing rising costs and truck availability challenges. Michigan’s September 2025 unemployment rate reached 5.3%—the fourth-highest nationally, well above the 4.1% national average—reflecting regional economic weakness that may constrain timber demand.

Labor Shortages Constrain Harvest Capacity

The logging industry faces what researchers characterize as a “structural shortage”—not a lack of workers broadly, but specifically a lack of skilled and technical workers. This constraint limits harvest capacity even when demand and prices improve. The workforce is aging, with fewer young workers entering the profession despite mechanization that could ease physical demands.

Mechanization creates its own paradox: while reducing need for manual labor, it increases requirements for qualified equipment operators who may need a full year to master complex machinery. Changing minimum wage laws create retention challenges, with employers struggling to maintain competitive wages while managing thin profit margins. These labor constraints mean that even when housing recovery drives stronger timber demand, the industry’s ability to respond remains limited—potentially supporting higher prices but constraining market responsiveness.

Policy Developments and Carbon Markets

Michigan pioneered state forest carbon credit programs with the Big Wild Forest Carbon Project in Pigeon River Country State Forest. DTE Energy purchased credits from the first decade of this 40-year project covering 109,000+ acres, with approximately 1 million carbon credits generated over the initial decade. A second project, the Wolverine-Copper Country Forest Carbon Project, encompasses 120,000+ acres in northern Lower Peninsula and western Upper Peninsula, with developers currently seeking buyers.

Combined, these projects represent 230,000+ acres enrolled in carbon programs—three times larger than any previous public forestland carbon program in the U.S. Revenue flows into the Forest Development Fund and Game and Fish Fund, supporting climate change adaptation and sustainable forest management. Forest administrators emphasize that carbon projects are compatible with commercial timber harvest objectives.

The Family Forest Carbon Program has expanded in Michigan, working with private landowners controlling as little as 30 acres to access carbon markets. These initiatives offer supplemental revenue streams but typically require long-term commitments (20+ years) and may restrict harvest flexibility. For most timber owners, traditional stumpage sales remain the primary revenue source, with carbon markets providing potential supplemental income rather than replacement revenue.

Mass Timber Initiative Launches

In a potentially game-changing development, Michigan launched its Mass Timber Catalyst Program on October 22, 2025. The partnership among Michigan DNR, MassTimber@MSU, Michigan Green Building Collaborative, and WoodWorks offers $25,000-$75,000 awards per project for design, procurement, and technical assistance using mass timber in commercial, industrial, institutional, and multifamily residential projects.

Michigan State University research estimates a 100,000 cubic meter mass timber facility could generate over $300 million annually. However, Michigan faces a fundamental challenge: its forests are 70% hardwood, while mass timber construction currently relies on softwoods. Research continues on incorporating hardwoods into mass timber products, but engineering, fire safety, and building code inclusion remain hurdles. If successful, mass timber manufacturing could dramatically increase demand for Michigan’s pine and aspen resources, though the timeline for facility development remains uncertain.

Outlook and Recommendations

As Michigan timber prices close out 2025, landowners face a landscape of cautious optimism tempered by significant structural challenges. Quality sawlogs—particularly white oak, hard maple, and especially black walnut—command strong prices, while pulpwood markets remain weak. The housing market recovery should gradually strengthen demand through 2026-2028, supported by Federal Reserve rate cuts and demographic fundamentals.

For landowners considering timber sales, several strategies can maximize value. Work with consulting foresters to obtain professional appraisals and identify optimal markets—competitive bidding typically yields 15-30% higher prices than single-buyer negotiations. Quality matters more than ever: veneer-grade logs command two to five times sawlog prices for the same species. Timing remains important: winter harvests on frozen ground typically command premiums due to reduced site impact and better access.

Species selection drives value: If your stands contain black walnut, white oak, or veneer-quality hard maple, current markets offer solid pricing despite broader industry challenges. Conversely, if pulpwood comprises the majority of your timber volume, consider delaying harvest until pulpwood markets recover or exploring alternative management strategies.

The mass timber initiative, carbon credit programs, and wood residuals innovation represent potential long-term opportunities, though near-term impacts remain limited. Sustainable forest management practices and certification (SFI, FSC, or American Tree Farm System) increasingly provide market advantages as buyers seek verified sustainable sources.

Michigan’s timber industry stands at an inflection point. The painful contraction of recent years—1,100 jobs lost, $211 million in output eliminated, major mills closed—cannot be minimized. Yet targeted investments, innovative policy initiatives, and fundamental housing market demand suggest the worst may be behind us. For Q4 2025, the message is clear: quality timber retains value, but patience and strategic management will be rewarded as markets gradually stabilize and recover.

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Pricing data reflects Q4 2025 market conditions based on Michigan DNR stumpage reports, Forest Data Network Lake States pricing, Michigan State University Extension data, and industry market analyses. Prices represent estimates for stumpage values (amounts paid to landowners for standing timber) and vary significantly based on individual timber characteristics, stand conditions, accessibility, and local market dynamics. Landowners should obtain professional appraisals for specific properties.