Mississippi Timber Prices Q4 2025
Mississippi timber prices entering Q4 2025 reveal a bifurcated landscape where pine sawtimber and hardwood prices remain elevated year-over-year despite quarterly softening, while pulpwood prices have collapsed to their lowest levels in over two decades. The most recent data from Q3 2025 shows pine sawtimber averaging $20.25/ton statewide—down 6.8% from the prior quarter but still up 10.9% from a year ago. Meanwhile, major sawmill investments totaling over $365 million are transforming Mississippi’s forest products sector even as paper mill closures signal structural decline in pulpwood demand.
These mixed signals reflect broader market pressures: Southern yellow pine lumber prices have fallen to near-decade lows, housing starts in the South dropped 21% in August 2025, and 45% combined tariffs on Canadian lumber have yet to meaningfully boost domestic prices. For Mississippi landowners, the Q4 outlook suggests holding quality sawtimber for improving conditions while accepting that pulpwood returns may remain depressed through 2026.
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Current stumpage prices by product and region
The Mississippi State University Extension‘s Q3 2025 Timber Price Report—the most current data available (Q4 figures won’t be published until mid-January 2026)—surveyed 78 timber sales statewide and reveals significant variation by product type and geographic region.
Pine products statewide averages ($/ton)
| Product | Average | Low | High | Q/Q Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pine Sawtimber | $20.25 | $14.00 | $30.00 | -$1.48 (-6.8%) |
| Pine Chip-n-Saw | $11.25 | $6.00 | $18.00 | -$0.44 (-3.8%) |
| Pine Pulpwood | $2.26 | $0.50 | $12.00 | +$0.08 (+3.7%) |
| Pine Poles | $34.62 | $27.00 | $45.00 | +$1.10 |
| Pine Plylogs | $17.29 | $12.00 | $22.00 | -$0.36 |
Hardwood products statewide averages ($/ton)
| Product | Average | Low | High | Q/Q Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oak Sawtimber | $41.00 | $28.00 | $58.33 | -$1.55 (-3.6%) |
| Mixed Hardwood Sawtimber | $32.33 | $20.00 | $58.00 | +$0.16 (+0.5%) |
| Hardwood Pulpwood | $4.09 | $1.00 | $19.00 | -$0.41 (-9.1%) |
| Crossties | $25.53 | $21.06 | $30.00 | -$4.97 |
Species like sweetgum, yellow poplar, and cypress typically fall within the “mixed hardwood sawtimber” or “hardwood pulpwood” categories. Detailed species-specific pricing requires subscription access to TimberMart-South premium reports.
Regional price variations show Southeast commanding premiums
Mississippi timber prices vary substantially across the state’s four reporting regions, with Southeast Mississippi consistently commanding the highest premiums for pine products due to stronger mill competition and better market access.
Pine sawtimber by region (Q3 2025)
| Region | Average | Range |
|---|---|---|
| Southeast | $21.41 | $18.00–$25.00 |
| Southwest | $20.93 | $15.00–$25.00 |
| Northeast | $20.53 | $15.00–$30.00 |
| Northwest | $17.04 | $14.00–$22.32 |
Pine chip-n-saw by region (Q3 2025)
| Region | Average | Range |
|---|---|---|
| Southeast | $14.55 | $11.00–$18.00 |
| Northeast | $11.38 | $9.00–$15.00 |
| Southwest | $10.59 | $6.00–$16.18 |
| Northwest | $8.71 | $6.00–$14.00 |
Oak sawtimber by region (Q3 2025)
| Region | Average | Range |
|---|---|---|
| Southwest | $43.53 | $30.00–$58.33 |
| Northeast | $41.15 | $28.00–$55.00 |
| Northwest | $37.30 | $35.00–$45.00 |
| Southeast | Insufficient data | — |
The Southeast’s advantage stems from proximity to coastal export facilities and a concentration of active sawmills. The Northwest Delta region, while excellent for bottomland hardwoods like overcup oak and nuttall oak, sees weaker pine prices due to longer haul distances to major mills.
Price context: Mississippi runs below South-wide averages
Mississippi stumpage prices run significantly below South-wide averages, reflecting the state’s abundant standing timber supply and historically lower demand intensity compared to states like Georgia and Texas.
| Product | Mississippi Q3 2025 | South-wide Q3 2025 | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pine Sawtimber | $20.25 | $25.08 | -$4.83 (-19%) |
| Pine Pulpwood | $2.26 | $6.17 | -$3.91 (-63%) |
| Hardwood Sawtimber | $32.33 | $33.14 | -$0.81 (-2%) |
The pulpwood price gap is particularly striking—Mississippi’s $2.26/ton average is barely a third of the South-wide $6.17 average, which itself represents the lowest regional pulpwood price since Q3 2002 according to TimberMart-South. This reflects the structural decline in paper production across the Southeast and Mississippi’s distance from remaining pulp markets.
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Lumber markets at decade lows despite Canadian tariffs
Southern yellow pine lumber prices have crashed to $362/mfbm for East Side 2×4 #2&Btr KD (week ending November 7, 2025)—down 21% year-over-year and representing near-decade lows. One industry analyst described sellers as “alarmed as their prices crashed and burned to eye-popping lows” during summer 2025.
The weak lumber market stems from multiple factors. Housing starts fell 8.5% month-over-month in August 2025 to 1.307 million units (SAAR), the fourth-lowest reading since May 2020. The South specifically saw starts plunge 21% to 667,000 units. Single-family starts dropped to 890,000 units—the weakest since July 2024. Building permits fell 11.1% year-over-year, signaling continued weakness ahead.
Despite 45% combined tariffs on Canadian lumber (anti-dumping, countervailing duties, and Section 232 tariffs tripled through 2025), domestic prices haven’t responded positively because U.S. sawmill capacity utilization remains stuck at just 64-74%. The industry has abundant capacity but insufficient demand to fill it.
Mortgage rates, while down from January 2025 peaks above 7%, remain elevated at 6.23% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages—enough to keep housing affordability severely constrained. An income exceeding $104,000 annually is now required to qualify for a median-priced home, double 2019 levels.
Major mill closures reshape pulpwood markets
The wave of pulp and paper mill closures across the Southeast is fundamentally reshaping regional timber markets and explains much of the pulpwood price collapse.
International Paper has emerged as the biggest source of capacity reduction. The company closed its Savannah and Riceboro, Georgia facilities by September 2025 (affecting 1,100+ workers combined), its Red River containerboard mill in Louisiana in April 2025, and its Georgetown, South Carolina pulp mill in late 2024. These closures represent approximately 3% of total U.S. pulp capacity.
Georgia-Pacific shuttered its Cedar Springs, Georgia pulp mill on August 1, 2025. Domtar indefinitely idled its Grenada, Mississippi newsprint mill in mid-September 2025, affecting 150+ workers. The Grenada closure, while smaller, directly impacts Mississippi pulpwood markets—the facility had consumed 235,000 metric tons of newsprint annually since 1989.
On the sawmill side, Canfor permanently closed its Darlington and Estill, South Carolina facilities in August 2025, eliminating 350 million board feet of annual capacity and 290 jobs. West Fraser announced permanent closure of its Augusta, Georgia mill by year-end 2025. Interfor has maintained indefinite curtailments at Georgia and South Carolina facilities.
These closures compound the market impact of Hurricane Helene’s $1.28 billion timber damage in Georgia (September 2024), which flooded regional markets with salvage timber and will continue depressing pulpwood prices through mid-2025 as mills absorb damaged material.
Mississippi sees $365 million in sawmill investments
Against the backdrop of regional closures, Mississippi is experiencing a surge of sawmill investment that positions the state for strengthening timber demand over the next several years.
Hood Industries announced a $245 million expansion of its Waynesboro sawmill in September 2025—the largest single timber investment in Mississippi in recent memory. The project will construct a new state-of-the-art facility adjacent to existing operations, featuring continuous dual-path kilns and AI-powered Smart Vision technology from Comact. Completion is targeted for October 2026.
Southeastern Timber Products celebrated a ribbon-cutting in October 2025 for its $120 million Ackerman expansion, which increases annual capacity from 120 million to 300 million board feet—a 150% increase. Governor Tate Reeves attended, noting the expansion benefits 15+ surrounding counties.
Biewer Lumber is investing $40 million to expand its Newton facility by 100 million board feet annually, adding 45 jobs to its current workforce of approximately 125.
Additional developments include Twain Capital’s $10 million acquisition of the Liberty, Mississippi sawmill from Teal-Jones receivership, which will continue operations, and Enviva’s announcement of a new pellet mill in Bond, Stone County (though the company has since indicated this project is unlikely to proceed following its bankruptcy filing).
Mississippi currently operates 102 timber mills including 60 sawmills, 10 chip mills, 9 pole mills, 6 plywood mills, 6 crosstie mills, and 5 pulp/paper facilities, according to the Mississippi Forestry Commission.
Regional dynamics favor patience for landowners
Several structural factors will shape Mississippi timber markets through early 2026 and suggest landowners with quality sawtimber may benefit from patience.
Abundant supply continues pressuring prices. Mississippi’s Golden Triangle region alone has 4+ million acres of private timberland where pine is growing at twice the harvest rate—a significant inventory overhang. Growth-to-drain ratios are improving but won’t tighten meaningfully until 2028-2030 according to Forisk projections.
Weather provided forest recovery. Wet conditions through 2025 helped Mississippi forests recover from 2023-2024 drought stress, though full fine root recovery from drought mortality may take several more years. The March 2025 tornado outbreak damaged forests in 21 counties, though the impact on statewide timber supply remains modest compared to Hurricane Helene’s devastation in Georgia.
Cross-border competition intensifying. Mills in Alabama, Louisiana, Tennessee, and Arkansas compete actively for Mississippi timber. Enviva’s new Epes, Alabama pellet plant—the world’s largest at 1.1 million metric tons annually—began operations in November 2025 and draws from western Mississippi timber supply. A 75-mile radius from the Golden Triangle region contains 16 softwood and 12 hardwood sawmills.
Corporate timberland consolidation continues. The October 2025 announcement of PotlatchDeltic’s $8.2 billion merger with Rayonier will create the second-largest U.S. timber REIT behind Weyerhaeuser, with 4.2 million combined acres including Mississippi holdings. Separately, Molpus Woodlands Group (headquartered in Ridgeland, Mississippi) acquired approximately 173,000 acres across Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi in October 2025.
