New York Timber Prices Q4 2025

Forest product markets in New York State are navigating a complex landscape in late 2025, with hardwood stumpage prices showing resilience while the broader lumber industry grapples with unprecedented Canadian tariff escalation and supply chain constraints, putting substantial strain on most New York timber prices. The state’s timber sector faces both significant challenges—including the now-statewide spread of emerald ash borer and escalating trade tensions—and emerging opportunities in mass timber construction and climate-focused forestry initiatives. For landowners and industry stakeholders, understanding these dynamics is critical for making informed decisions in the final quarter of 2025.

New York’s diverse forest resources continue to support a range of timber products, from premium hardwood lumber to construction-grade softwoods. The state’s stumpage prices reflect strong demand for quality hardwoods, particularly white oak, sugar maple, and red oak, even as softwood markets contend with supply pressures from mill closures and trade policy uncertainty. Meanwhile, lumber prices have risen 10.59% year-over-year to reach $586.62 per thousand board feet as of October 24, 2025, driven largely by capacity reductions and the doubling of Canadian lumber tariffs to over 35%.

Q4 2025 New York Timber Prices by Species

New York’s four price-reporting regions use different log scaling rules, making direct comparisons challenging. The data below represents stumpage prices (what landowners receive for standing timber) from the most recent NY DEC Winter 2025 report, covering the period overlapping with Q4 2025.

Hardwood Stumpage Prices ($/MBF)

Western/Central New York Region (Doyle Rule)

Species	Low Range	Average Range	High Range
White Oak	$75-900	$434-1,101	$620-1,500
Sugar Maple	$75-832	$300-1,013	$500-1,462
Red Oak	$75-738	$250-1,100	$375-1,462
Black Cherry	$75-806	$150-1,095	$300-1,595
White Ash	$75-792	$340-1,013	$496-1,462
Red Maple	$50-423	$125-787	$300-1,196
Yellow Birch	$25-310	$50-600	$100-925
American Beech	$32-100	$33-200	$50-300

Adirondack Region (International 1/4″ Rule)

Species	Low Range	Average Range	High Range
White Oak	$150-275	$250-375	$300-500
Sugar Maple	$130-350	$175-425	$325-625
Red Oak	$150-300	$250-425	$340-600
Black Cherry	$100-280	$150-360	$225-450
White Ash	$100-400	$250-675	$275-800
Red Maple	$90-190	$120-250	$175-350
Yellow Birch	$75-225	$190-300	$275-350
American Beech	$30-100	$40-125	$50-150

Softwood Stumpage Prices ($/MBF)

Western/Central New York Region (Doyle Rule)

Species	Low Range	Average Range	High Range
White Pine	$40-194	$60-198	$80-248
Red Pine	$30-222	$81-254	$50-286
Spruce	$50-163	$100-287	$100-167
Hemlock	$31-50	$49-100	$50-150

Adirondack Region (International 1/4″ Rule)

Species	Low Range	Average Range	High Range
White Pine	$85-170	$100-225	$125-300
Red Pine	$50-75	$60-90	$70-125
Spruce	$50-90	$70-125	$80-150
Hemlock	$40-50	$50-100	$70-300

Typical Retail Hardwood Lumber Prices (2025, per board foot)

These represent finished lumber prices at retail suppliers, reflecting sawmilling, kiln-drying, and distribution costs:

• White Oak: $5.00-9.00/BF (Select & Better), $7.00-12.00/BF (Quarter-sawn)
• Hard Maple: $4.95-8.50/BF
• Red Oak: $3.50-6.00/BF, $5.00-8.00/BF (Quarter-sawn)
• Black Cherry: $6.00-10.00/BF
• White Ash: $3.00-6.00/BF
• Soft Maple: $3.00-5.50/BF
• Yellow Birch: $4.00-7.00/BF
• White Pine: $2.50-4.50/BF (Clear), $1.50-3.00/BF (Common)

Note: Actual transaction timber prices in New York vary significantly based on timber quality, volume, accessibility, distance to mill, and market conditions. Price ranges reflect median values across multiple transactions.

Market Update: Navigating Turbulence and Opportunity

Canadian Tariff Crisis Reshapes North American Lumber Markets

The single most significant development affecting timber markets in 2025 has been the escalation of Canadian softwood lumber tariffs to unprecedented levels. As of October 14, 2025, Canadian lumber imports face combined duties exceeding 45% for most producers, including a base tariff of 35.16% (combining anti-dumping and countervailing duties) plus an additional 10% Section 232 national security tariff. Major producers like Canfor Corporation face total levies of 57.59%. This represents more than a doubling from the 8.1% baseline in early 2024.

The tariff escalation has created ripple effects throughout the industry. Canada supplies approximately 30% of U.S. softwood lumber consumption, and these punitive duties have rendered many Canadian mills economically unviable at current price levels. The industry saw over 3 billion board feet of sawmill capacity close in 2024 alone, following 2 billion board feet in 2023—representing roughly 7% of North American capacity lost in just two years. These closures have tightened supply and contributed to upward price pressure, though not enough to offset the fundamental demand challenges facing the sector.

For New York forest landowners, the tariff situation presents both challenges and opportunities. While it creates general market volatility and uncertainty, it also potentially opens space for domestic producers to capture market share. However, U.S. mills lack the capacity to fully replace Canadian volume without substantial investment in new facilities—a process that takes years (yet notably, so far mills have only been curtailing production).

Housing Market Provides Modest Support Despite Affordability Crisis

Housing construction activity remains the primary demand driver for lumber and wood products. August 2025 data showed total housing starts at 1.307 million units annually, down 6.0% year-over-year from August 2024. Single-family starts declined 7.0% month-over-month to 890,000 units. Building permits, a leading indicator, fell 11.1% year-over-year, signaling continued caution among builders.

The challenge remains housing affordability, with the median home price at $460,000 and over 100 million American households unable to afford a median-priced home. Construction loan rates remain elevated at 6.5-8.0% for residential projects, with the Federal Reserve’s modest 25 basis point rate cut in September 2025 providing only limited relief. Industry forecasts project 1.38 million total starts for 2025, representing just 1.3% growth over 2024.

Despite these headwinds, the persistent shortage of existing housing inventory continues to push buyers toward new construction. Markets with severe housing shortages, including the Northeast, completed only 56,000 single-family homes in May 2025—far below demand levels. This structural shortage provides a floor under lumber demand even as economic conditions constrain growth.

Supply Constraints and Mill Capacity Shape Price Dynamics

Lumber prices climbed to $586.62 per thousand board feet as of October 24, 2025, up 10.59% year-over-year, reflecting the cumulative impact of capacity reductions and trade policy. The Gordian construction cost index reported framing lumber at $903.14/MBF in October 2025, up 12.71% year-over-year. Price volatility has increased significantly, with industry analysts predicting 50-100% greater volatility in 2025 compared to 2023-2024 levels.

The hardwood sector shows more positive momentum. Farm Credit East reported in mid-2025 that hardwood markets “continued to slowly build momentum,” with particularly strong demand for higher quality grades of hard maple and red oak. Mills are actively rebuilding inventories after years of maintaining extremely lean stocks, providing support for stumpage prices. In Western New York, April 2025 market reports indicated price increases for white oak, red oak, and sugar maple, while cherry and red maple experienced slight declines.

Southern yellow pine has outperformed other species, with continued strong demand from treaters keeping prices elevated. The regional shift away from western spruce-pine-fir toward southern yellow pine continues as buyers adjust to changing supply dynamics.

New York-specific factors: Forest Health Crisis Meets Climate Opportunity

New York’s forest industry confronts serious forest health challenges heading into 2025. Emerald ash borer (EAB) is now confirmed in every county except Hamilton and Lewis, with credible reports in both. The pest threatens approximately 900 million ash trees representing 7% of New York’s forests. Infested trees typically die within 2-4 years, creating a salvage window for landowners but fundamentally altering the state’s forest composition. White ash stumpage prices remain relatively strong at $340-1,013 per MBF in Western/Central New York, but the long-term outlook for ash as a commercial species is uncertain.

Beech leaf disease presents an emerging threat, confirmed in five new counties in 2024 (Otsego, Oneida, Washington, Lewis, Schenectady). Beech represents one of New York’s most common species in the beech/birch/maple forest type. Infected trees die within 2-10 years depending on size, with no proven treatment yet available. Red pine scale, previously limited to southern New York, was detected in Essex and Warren counties in 2024, causing significant mortality in red pine stands.

Counterbalancing these challenges, New York has launched unprecedented investment in forestry programs. The state allocated over $34.5 million in new grant programs for 2024-2025, including the Establishing Large Forests program ($4.5 million), Community Reforestation program ($15 million), and Community Forest Conservation grants ($1 million). These initiatives support Governor Hochul’s goal of planting 25 million trees by 2033 as part of the state’s climate strategy.

Perhaps most exciting for the timber industry is New York City’s mass timber construction boom. The NYC Mass Timber Studio’s second cohort, announced in May 2025, includes seven projects across all five boroughs, with the Stapleton B4/B5 development on Staten Island representing the largest mass timber residential project in city history at approximately 500 units. The 140,000-square-foot New York Climate Exchange on Governors Island, opening in 2029, will be the largest mass timber development in the cohort. With the North American mass timber market projected to grow 15.5% annually through 2032 and NYC’s Local Law 97 driving demand for low-carbon construction materials, this emerging sector could create significant new demand for sustainably harvested New York timber.

Weather Disruptions and Climate Impacts Affect Harvest Operations

The 2025 spring season brought unusually wet conditions that extended the traditional mud season by approximately three weeks across the Northeast, according to Farm Credit East’s August report. Forest roads became impassable, significantly delaying harvesting and hauling operations. This created a supply chain whiplash effect: mills that experienced oversupply during winter 2024-2025 suddenly faced shortages in spring as deliveries ground to halt.

These disruptions highlight the changing patterns affecting traditional winter logging operations, which account for roughly 53% of annual harvest volume in the Upper Midwest and Northeast. As winter weather becomes less predictable and frozen ground conditions less reliable, the industry faces operational challenges that affect both supply consistency and harvesting costs.

Wildfire impacts, while primarily affecting western states, have indirect effects on eastern markets through national lumber price movements. Colorado alone burned more acres in 2025 than the previous four years combined. In the Southeast, Hurricane Helene’s September 2024 damage to Georgia’s forest sector continues to reverberate, with sawtimber prices expected to rise for several years as affected areas face inventory shortages.

Labor Shortages Persist Across Logging and Manufacturing Sectors

The construction and forestry sectors continue struggling with critical workforce shortages. The Associated Builders and Contractors estimates the industry needs 439,000 new workers in 2025 to balance supply and demand. While construction employment grew 196,000 jobs in 2024 (2.4% increase) and average hourly earnings rose 4.4%—significantly outpacing other industries—the sector faces a looming “silver tsunami” with approximately 41% of the construction workforce estimated to retire by 2031.

For logging operations specifically, the shortage of skilled machine operators impacts mechanized logging efficiency. Training new workers takes time, and rushed training increases safety risks. Travelers Insurance found that over 50% of workers’ compensation claims come from employees with less than one year of experience. These workforce constraints limit the industry’s ability to respond to demand increases and contribute to overall supply tightness.

Outlook and Implications for Q4 2025 and Beyond

The remainder of 2025 and early 2026 will likely see continued volatility with a modest upward trend for New York timber prices. Industry forecasts from Forest Economic Advisors project the Framing Lumber Composite Index moving 8% higher in 2025 and 16% higher in 2026 as recovery strengthens. Key variables include the trajectory of Canadian tariff policy, housing starts performance, and interest rate movements.

For New York landowners, market conditions favor quality hardwoods, particularly white oak, sugar maple, and red oak. Mills are actively seeking inventory, and stumpage prices reflect this demand. However, timing harvests requires careful consideration of seasonal access constraints, forest health issues, and individual property objectives. Working with consulting foresters and Master Forest Owner volunteers through Cornell Cooperative Extension can help landowners navigate market opportunities while maintaining long-term forest health and productivity.

The industry faces a pivotal period where supply constraints, trade policy uncertainty, and emerging climate-focused opportunities converge. Success will depend on adapting to changing forest conditions, capitalizing on new markets like mass timber construction, and maintaining operational flexibility amid ongoing volatility. New York’s diverse forest resources, established infrastructure, and supportive policy environment position the state to navigate these challenges while contributing to both economic vitality and climate goals.

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Pricing data sourced from NY DEC Winter 2025 Stumpage Price Report, Pennsylvania Timber Market Report Q2 2025, Trading Economics, and industry sources. Market analysis based on NAHB, USDA Forest Service, Farm Credit East, and Fastmarkets reports. All prices in USD. Actual transaction prices vary based on timber quality, volume, accessibility, and market conditions. Consult a professional forester for property-specific guidance.