Tennessee Timber Prices Q4 2025
Tennessee’s timber markets are proving more resilient than much of the Southeast as Q4 2025 unfolds, with prices holding stable or rising even as regional markets face pressure from weak demand and Hurricane Helene’s aftermath. While current lumber prices have dropped to decade lows and housing starts remain constrained by elevated mortgage rates, Tennessee landowners benefit from strong local mill demand and the state’s relative insulation from the hurricane damage that devastated Georgia’s timber resources. However, precise Q4 2025 pricing data won’t be publicly available until January 2026, making the most recent Q3 2024 and Q3 2025 figures the best indicators of current market conditions.
The Tennessee timber market stands out as an exception in a challenging Southern timber landscape. While much of the South experienced significant price declines through 2024, Tennessee and North Georgia saw stable or rising prices—a trend driven by steady mill demand, reduced salvage timber pressure compared to hurricane-affected regions, and the state’s position in strong hardwood markets. This resilience matters for Tennessee’s 14 million forested acres, 83% of which are privately owned, making timber prices a critical economic factor for thousands of landowners.
WARNING: There Are No Second Chances
If you are reading this and plan to sell your timber (harvest your timber), bear in mind that you only have one shot. Once those trees are cut, you may not be able to harvest again in your lifetime. It is imperative you get it right the first time. That means getting the most money possible without your land and forest being permanently ruined by ruts, tree damage, and mud. That’s why I wrote How to Sell Your Timber Without Destroying Your Land, a comprehensive guide that walks landowners through every step of the process, regardless of whether you hire a forester or sell to loggers directly. It covers everything from deciding whether to harvest or keep growing and finding timber buyers to optimizing timber taxes so the IRS doesn’t take half. If you want to have a timber harvest you don’t regret later, check it out.
Current Pricing Snapshot: What Tennessee Timber Is Worth
The table below represents the most current available pricing based on Q3 2024 through Q3 2025 industry reports. Important note: These are stumpage prices (what landowners receive for standing timber), not delivered prices to mills, which run 40-60% higher. All prices reflect Tennessee and adjacent North Georgia markets unless otherwise specified.
Pine Species Pricing ($/ton, stumpage)
| Product Type | Low Range | High Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pine Sawtimber | $22-24 | $28-30 | Tennessee at higher end regionally |
| Pine Chip-n-Saw | $16-17 | $19-20 | Stable since Q2 2022 |
| Pine Pulpwood | $7-8 | $9-10 | Weak demand, limited mill quotas |
Species include: Loblolly pine, shortleaf pine, Virginia pine (prices not differentiated by individual species in industry reports)
Hardwood Species Pricing
Sawtimber ($/MBF – thousand board feet):
| Species | Price | Market Strength |
|---|---|---|
| Black Walnut | $735 | Highest value, strong veneer demand |
| White Oak | $575 | Historic highs, bourbon barrel stave demand |
| Chestnut Oak | $375 | Strong |
| Red Oak | $225 | Improving since 2021 |
| Sugar Maple | $200 | Moderate |
| Black Oak | $185 | Moderate |
| Yellow Poplar | $175 | Strong across all grades |
| Black Cherry | $175 | Moderate |
| Ash | $165 | Reduced by Emerald Ash Borer |
| Hickory | $150 | Stable |
| Red Maple | $150 | Slowly improving |
Mixed Hardwood Averages:
- Sawtimber: $35/ton (Tennessee/North Georgia region, Q3 2024—up 21% year-over-year)
- Pulpwood: $7-8/ton (all species, weak market)
Premium Veneer Logs (delivered prices):
- Black walnut veneer: $4,000-5,300+/MBF
- White oak stave/veneer: $2,000-3,000/MBF
- Note: Veneer-quality logs represent only ~5% of typical harvest but command 3-7x premium over standard sawlogs
How to Estimate What Your Timber Is Worth
These stumpage prices give you the market rates per unit of timber in your area, but they’re not particularly useful on their own—you need to know how much wood you actually have standing on your land.
The most accurate way to determine your timber volume is to hire a professional forester to conduct a timber cruise, which involves systematically measuring sample plots across your property. This can cost $1,000 or more depending on your acreage and timber complexity.
For a quicker, DIY estimate, you can use SilviCultural—forestry mapping software designed for small woodland owners. It includes an amateur-friendly cruise system that walks you through measuring your timber and calculating volumes by species and product class.
Once you have volume estimates (in MBF, cords, tons, etc.), you can multiply them by the stumpage prices above to get a rough sense of your timber’s market value. For example:
- 50 MBF of pine sawlogs × $400/MBF = $20,000
- 100 cords of mixed hardwood pulpwood × $15/cord = $1,500
Keep in mind: Actual sale prices vary based on access, timber quality, market timing, and logger availability. These calculations give you a ballpark figure—always consult with a forester before making harvest decisions.
Tennessee Timber Prices Stands Apart From Troubled Regional Trends
Tennessee timber markets demonstrated notable resilience through 2024 and into 2025, with the state identified as an “exception” to broader Southern price declines in industry reports. While South Louisiana saw 20% drops in pine sawtimber prices and South Georgia experienced similar declines, Tennessee maintained stable or rising prices. The North Georgia/Tennessee region’s hardwood sawtimber prices jumped 21% year-over-year to reach $35/ton by Q3 2024, among the highest in the South.
This strength reflects several factors. Tennessee sustained relatively modest damage from Hurricane Helene—$60 million in timber losses across nine East Tennessee counties—compared to Georgia’s catastrophic 8.9 million affected acres. This means Tennessee isn’t flooded with salvage timber that has depressed prices in hurricane-impacted regions. Additionally, strong local mill demand and Tennessee’s position as a top-three hardwood lumber producing state creates competitive bidding for quality timber.
The white oak market deserves special attention. Tennessee landowners with quality white oak are benefiting from historically high prices driven by fierce competition between exporters, sawmills, and bourbon barrel stave producers. In neighboring Kentucky, delivered stave logs averaged $2.33 per board foot in 2024, with premium logs commanding over $3.00. This barrel stave boom, fueled by bourbon industry growth and international demand, shows no signs of abating.
Market Headwinds Dampen Near-Term Timber Demand
Despite Tennessee’s relative strength, the broader timber market faces significant challenges that will influence prices through Q4 2025 and into 2026. Lumber prices hit their lowest levels in a decade in fall 2025, with southern yellow pine lumber dropping to levels not seen since 2015. Lumber futures traded at $575 per thousand board feet in late October 2025, down from spring highs but still 8% above year-ago levels—illustrating the market’s volatility.
Housing construction, which drives 70% of lumber demand, remains constrained by mortgage rates stuck in the mid-6% range. August 2025 housing starts totaled 1.307 million units annually, down 6% from the previous year, with single-family construction at 890,000 units. While the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to 4.00-4.25% in September 2025, with two additional cuts projected by year-end, mortgage rates haven’t followed suit quickly enough to unlock significant new construction activity.
The industry responded to weak demand with major capacity cuts. Canfor Corporation permanently closed two South Carolina sawmills in August 2025, eliminating 350 million board feet of annual capacity and affecting 290 workers. West Fraser shuttered its Perry, Florida mill, and International Paper closed pulp mills and a sawmill in Georgia. Over 5 billion board feet of lumber capacity disappeared in 2023-2024, representing roughly 7% of the industry’s capacity base. For pulpwood, the picture is grimmer still—25 million tons of wood demand removed from the pulp sector between 2022-2025, a 16% capacity reduction in the U.S. South.
These closures hurt timber prices in the short term (fewer buyers means less competition) but should eventually support higher prices as overcapacity diminishes. The challenge is timing—how long until reduced capacity meets current demand levels?
Export Weakness Compounds Demand Challenges
Chinese demand for U.S. timber and lumber, once a major market driver, continues weakening due to China’s troubled housing sector and increased competition from Russian and European suppliers. American hardwood lumber exports dropped 21% from 2022 to 2023, with China still purchasing the most volume but at the lowest levels since 2011. Red oak exports to China, which historically represented 71-80% of total red oak exports, fell to just 51% in 2023.
This matters particularly for Tennessee, where approximately 60% of hardwood production has historically been exported. While markets in Vietnam, the Middle East, India, and Europe are growing to partially offset China’s decline, these smaller buyers don’t fully replace lost Chinese volume. For softwoods, North American exports to China rebounded slightly in Q2 2025 after a weak start to the year, but recent reports suggest China’s real estate recovery “hit headwinds” again by summer.
Trade policy adds uncertainty. U.S. duties on Canadian lumber rose from 8.1% to 14.5% in August 2024, with the next annual review expected to push duties to 30% by mid-2025. Additional threats of blanket 25% tariffs on all Canadian goods loom. While these duties reduce Canadian competition and could support U.S. timber prices long-term, they also create market volatility and uncertainty that makes buyers cautious.
Hurricane Helene’s Lasting Impact on Regional Timber Supply
Hurricane Helene, which struck in September 2024, created complex market dynamics still playing out in Q4 2025. Tennessee’s damage, while significant at nearly $60 million affecting 74,238 cubic feet of timber across nine East Tennessee counties, pales compared to the regional devastation. Across the Southeast, the storm damaged 1.5 million acres and caused $1.86 billion in timber losses, with Georgia bearing the brunt—losing timber equivalent to an entire year’s harvest from some of the region’s most productive forestland.
The immediate effect was salvage timber flooding southern Georgia and northern Florida markets, depressing pulpwood prices that are expected to “stay low through most of 2025.” However, the longer-term impact reverses this dynamic. So much standing sawtimber inventory was destroyed that pine sawtimber prices in heavily affected areas are expected to rise “for several years” due to shortage. This creates a bifurcated market—oversupply in some products and regions, undersupply in others.
For Tennessee landowners, Hurricane Helene’s silver lining is competitive positioning. With Georgia mills processing salvage timber, Tennessee’s undamaged timber becomes more valuable to mills seeking quality logs. The infrastructure damage—portions of I-26 and I-40 closed or damaged—also makes transport from hurricane zones more difficult, potentially benefiting Tennessee producers closer to functioning mills and transportation networks.
The Outlook: Volatility Ahead With Eventual Price Support
Multiple crosscurrents will drive Tennessee timber markets through late 2025 and 2026. The bearish factors are clear: weak lumber demand, elevated inventories, high mortgage rates constraining housing starts, soft Chinese export markets, and ongoing economic uncertainty. Lumber futures are expected to trade at $617 per thousand board feet by year-end, up modestly from current levels but reflecting tepid demand characterized by buyers maintaining “lean inventories” and a “wait-and-see approach.”
The bullish case centers on supply tightening. Mill closures removed enormous capacity. Canadian duties reduce competition. Hurricane damage eliminated significant standing inventory. And fundamentally, the U.S. faces a structural housing shortage from a decade of underbuilding following the Great Recession—demand that must eventually be met. Single-family housing starts are projected to reach 1.14 million units for full-year 2025, with forecasts calling for 11% growth in overall housing construction to address the shortage.
For Tennessee specifically, the combination of limited hurricane impact, strong local mill demand, exceptional hardwood markets (particularly white oak), and the state’s reliable forest products infrastructure positions the market relatively well. Industry analysts note Tennessee timber as an exception to regional weakness, and that local character should persist.
The timing question remains uncertain. Federal Reserve rate cuts should eventually stimulate housing and timber demand, but the transmission mechanism—from Fed rates to mortgage rates to housing starts to lumber demand to stumpage prices—takes 12-18 months. Fastmarkets predicts U.S. timber consumption will grow 2-3% in 2025 for lumber and panels, a modest improvement. Price volatility is expected to increase 50-100% in 2025 compared to the subdued 2023-2024 period.
What Tennessee Landowners Should Know
For landowners considering timber sales in Q4 2025, several factors warrant attention. First, always consult a professional consulting forester for current local market conditions. Timber markets are intensely local—prices can vary significantly within a 50-75 mile radius based on mill proximity, species mix, and timber quality. The prices in this report represent regional averages; your actual sale price will depend on site-specific factors.
Second, timber quality matters enormously, especially for hardwoods. Veneer-grade black walnut logs can fetch $4,000-5,300 per thousand board feet delivered, while standard sawlogs bring $735. The difference between a 24-inch diameter white oak veneer log and a 14-inch sawlog can be triple the price. Investment in timber stand improvement, selective harvesting, and patience to grow larger trees pays substantial dividends in hardwood stands.
Third, tax planning is critical. Timber sales qualify for capital gains treatment if held over one year, providing significant tax advantages over ordinary income. Hurricane Helene casualty losses may qualify for tax deductions or deferment. A consulting forester or forestry tax specialist can help maximize after-tax returns.
Finally, market timing is part art, part science. While current lumber prices are weak, stumpage prices in Tennessee have held relatively firm. Selling today captures current prices; waiting for improvement means bearing market risk but potentially higher returns if housing markets recover. The competitive sealed bid process with multiple buyers typically yields better prices than negotiating with a single buyer.
